Toronto real estate is finding out how fickle gold-rush buyers are when looking for property. Numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) show that sales are experiencing rapid cooling. The rapid drop in sales is spooking buyers, and sending prices substantially lower in just one month.
Benchmark Prices Dropped $37,700
Toronto real estate prices are losing ground, and fast. The composite benchmark price across TREB fell to $773,000, an 18% increase from the same time last year. That’s $37,700 lower than it was last month. In the 416 area, prices fell to $807,800, a 20.1% increase from the same time last year. This is down $21,700 from the month before. The benchmark price is softer, but prices are actually still showing pretty steep gains. A hot market typically posts 2-3% gains when inflation adjusted, so this should really highlight how out of whack Toronto real estate prices are right now.
The composite benchmark remained up in all neighbourhoods, but declined from the month before in almost all. The biggest declines were observed in the Bathurst Manor area (TREB C06), where the benchmark prices fell $64,300 in just one month. The composite price of a home in that neighbourhood is now $1,081,000, still a 17.98% gain from the year before. The second largest drop was observed in the schmancy area of Lawrence Park North (TREB C12), where the benchmark fell $58,900 from the month before. The benchmark price in that neighbourhood is now $1,947,800, still up 16.96% from the same time last year.
| Month | Average Price |
|---|---|
| December 2014 | 556,602 |
| January 2015 | 552,575 |
| February 2015 | 596,163 |
| March 2015 | 613,933 |
| April 2015 | 635,932 |
| May 2015 | 649,599 |
| June 2015 | 639,184 |
| July 2015 | 609,236 |
| August 2015 | 602,607 |
| September 2015 | 627,395 |
| October 2015 | 630,876 |
| November 2015 | 632,685 |
| December 2015 | 609,110 |
| January 2016 | 631,092 |
| February 2016 | 685,278 |
| March 2016 | 688,181 |
| April 2016 | 739,082 |
| May 2016 | 751,908 |
| June 2016 | 746,546 |
| July 2016 | 709,825 |
| August 2016 | 710,410 |
| September 2016 | 755,755 |
| October 2016 | 762,975 |
| November 2016 | 776,684 |
| December 2016 | 730,472 |
| January 2017 | 770,745 |
| February 2017 | 875,983 |
| March 2017 | 916,567 |
| April 2017 | 919,614 |
| May 2017 | 863,910 |
| June 2017 | 793,915 |
| July 2017 | 746,218 |
Source: TREB.
Listings Increased 5.1%
Inventory is building much faster across TREB. New listings hit 14,171, a 5.1% increase from the same time last year. Active listings across TREB stood at 18,751, a massive 65.3% increase from last year. Much of this has to do with buyers taking a little longer, as the average time to purchase increased over 31% to 21 days. We’re still finding some gaming of the active listings and days on market, but not nearly as much as in 2016.
| Month | Sales | New Listings |
|---|---|---|
| December 2014 | 4,446 | 4,448 |
| January 2015 | 4,355 | 9,596 |
| February 2015 | 6,338 | 10,503 |
| March 2015 | 8,940 | 15,531 |
| April 2015 | 11,303 | 18,117 |
| May 2015 | 11,706 | 18,697 |
| June 2015 | 11,992 | 17,746 |
| July 2015 | 9,880 | 14,699 |
| August 2015 | 7,998 | 12,628 |
| September 2015 | 8,200 | 16,077 |
| October 2015 | 8,804 | 13,339 |
| November 2015 | 7,385 | 9,609 |
| December 2015 | 4,945 | 4,783 |
| January 2016 | 4,672 | 8,957 |
| February 2016 | 7,621 | 11,275 |
| March 2016 | 10,326 | 14,864 |
| April 2016 | 12,085 | 16,252 |
| May 2016 | 12,870 | 17,412 |
| June 2016 | 12,794 | 16,980 |
| July 2016 | 9,989 | 13,542 |
| August 2016 | 9,813 | 12,409 |
| September 2016 | 9,902 | 15,111 |
| October 2016 | 9,768 | 13,377 |
| November 2016 | 8,547 | 10,518 |
| December 2016 | 5,338 | 4,188 |
| January 2017 | 5,188 | 7,338 |
| February 2017 | 8,014 | 9,834 |
| March 2017 | 12,077 | 17,051 |
| April 2017 | 11,630 | 21,630 |
| May 2017 | 10,196 | 25,837 |
| June 2017 | 7,974 | 19,680 |
| July 2017 | 5,921 | 14,171 |
Source: TREB.
Sales Dropped Over 40%
Sales showed sharp declines across the TREB. July saw 5,921 sales, a 40.4% decline from the same time last year. Breaking that number down, the 416 saw 2,282 of those sales, a 34% decline from last year. The 905 (a.k.a. the ‘burbs) saw 3,549 sales, a 44% decline from the same time last year. Sales dropped across the whole GTA, but there was a much bigger drop in the suburbs of Toronto.
It may not be the super hot market the city saw just three months ago, but the only people impacted at this point are recent buyers. Although the more prices drop, the harder it is to attract new buyers since… who wants to catch a falling knife? Over the next few days, we’ll break down the market by segment, to give more detailed insights.